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Dec 6, 2023
3 min read

PromoGuy's The EV Behind BetRivers Parlay Insurance

BetRivers has introduced daily 4 leg parlay insurance promos for NBA and College Basketball to run all season long for each. These have -500 per leg odds requirements. The goal of these is to maximize how often you go 3 out of 4.

The EV Behind BetRivers Parlay Insurance

BetRivers has introduced daily 4 leg parlay insurance promos for NBA and NCAA to run all season long for each. The promos have -500 per leg odds requirements. The goal of these is to maximize how often you go 3 out of 4. You may remember in the past (March Madness FanDuel version of this) that I would do three heavily favored legs and one longshot leg. This was because if you take three 95%+ legs and parlay them with a low probability leg you are very likely to win the three 95%+ legs and lose the 4th and get a free bet back. Making this close to a “no sweat” play from an EV perspective. Taking three 95% likelihood legs and a 10% leg earns you a free bet back 78.5% of the time. Converting that at 75% makes the EV in a vigless world (just to simplify the calcs so the EV will likely be worse than this) of the parlay with the insurance about 58.8%. Now for the BetRivers and similar parlay insurances (DK has introduced them with a -300 legs requirement, ESPN has introduced some with -200 per leg requirements).

 Let's look at how different strategies look with a new leg requirement imposed:

Strategy Chance of getting exactly 3 legs to win
Four 75% legs 42.19%
Four 50% legs 25%
Three 75% legs, one 16% leg 42.18%l
Four 66.7% legs 39.4%
Four 25% legs 4.6%

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I had three major takeaways from these numbers. 

  1. The first thing that jumps out is we're going from 78.5% to below 50% chance of getting insurance. While this is clearly a lot worse, 30% ish EV pre vig will still end up very good if we are line shopping at all. 
  1. The next thing that jumps out is how quick the dropoff moves from doing 75% legs to 50% legs to 25% legs. 
  1. The last thing that's evident is that there are two very good strategies for this promo. Using heavy favorites and a heavy underdog is still as good of a strategy as any, however, it is much worse than it was without the leg requirement and no longer any better than the four heavy favorites strategy. 

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I tend to do the four 75% legs version because at the same EV there's less variance associated with a +200 play rather than a +600 play for this promo. You can’t go wrong doing either of those strategies. It is just best to avoid doing four 50% legs or even four + money legs because as you can see it significantly diminishes the value of the promo. I post plays for these promos basically every day (Draftkings on Twitter, BetRivers and ESPN in my discord) and am excited they are here (at least on BetRivers) for the entire basketball season. 

If you haven't already, make sure to sign up for BetRivers with the below links so that you can take advantage of these great promos all season long! 

‍BetRivers: 

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If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, and wants help, call 1-800-Gambler or visit www.800gambler.org. Must be 21+ and present in specified jurisdiction. Terms & Conditions apply.

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