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Mar 31, 2024
2 min read

Promoguy's The EV behind the New Draftkings Promo

The EV behind the New Draftkings Promo

Bet $50 on a player to hit a home run and get $2 per hit win or lose. There are a few ways we can calculate this so let's go through them (should end up on the same number). We took Ohtani at +290 and the fair odds are +346 according to BettorOdds weighted mkt avg. The total hits market is at 16.5 in the game meaning ~$33 are expected to be returned in free bets. At a 70% expected conversion (we do better than that) that is $23.1 (round down to $23) expected to be returned from the get part of the promo. 

1 - Change the risk/ reward numbers by factoring in the bet/get. Normally, betting Ohtani at +290 would mean risking $50 to win $145 but with a $23 return from the get the bet becomes $27 (50-23) to win $168. That would make the odds for Ohtani to home run +622 which is heavily arbable to every book (MGM at -375 would be the best no price). +622 vs the +346 0 vig line is (622-346)/4.46 = 61.88% EV on the $27 equivalent wager. If you want to do the EV % on the $50 wager then it is 33.4%.

2. Measure the Vig vs the reward. $23 reward vs vig of the 290 wager vs the 346 fair odds. The vig is $50*(2.90-3.46)/4.46 = -$6.278. So the EV is $23 - $6.278 =$16.722 which once again is 33.4% on our $50 wager.  

This is a fantastic promo as you see above and one of the higher EV ones we get.

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